Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
